Friday, August 29, 2008

Arctic, permafrost melt as record approaches again

Nature Magazine's Climate Feedback blog reports that scientists have found physical evidence that the permafrost holds 60% more carbon than previously thought (98.2 million tonnes of carbon, or 1/6 of the amount currently in the atmosphere). This means that as the permafrost melts, it will release more greenhouse gases than previously thought and will therefore accelerate global warming at a faster pace. The research was done by scientists who collected permafrost samples using jackhammers.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (considered to be the leading expert on Arctic sea ice in the United States) reports that Arctic ice melt this year is now the second-lowest in history after 2007. We may also be on track to beat the 2007 record. Several weeks are left in the melt season and the melt this year is closing in on the melt from last year, as the graph shows. A major reason for this year's melt is the condition of the ice after last year. It is thinner and less dense. NSIDC addresses the question that is on all of our minds:

Will 2008 also break the standing record low, set in 2007? We will know in the
next several weeks, when the melt season comes to a close. The bottom line,
however, is that the strong negative trend in summertime ice extent
characterizing the past decade continues.
I was really glad to see the Democrats insert global warming into most of their speeches at the Convention. I was also happy to see Al Gore's speech. The Republicans need to address this issue next week in Minneapolis but I doubt they will. I think it's pretty clear who will act swiftly to address climate change and who won't. I think it's also clear that we are already heading into "Adaptation" as opposed to "prevention" regarding this global calamity.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Maryland releases Climate Action Plan

The Washington Post reports that Maryland yesterday released its Climate Action Plan. The plan is available here. Elements from the plan as quoted from the Washington Post:

  • Climate change could profoundly alter the weather, animal life and even the very shape of Maryland over the next century, making heat waves deadlier and leaving one corner of the Eastern Shore under water.
  • The state must eliminate most of the greenhouse gases coming from tailpipes and smokestacks... That will be a tall order because Maryland's emissions are on the rise.
  • Annual average temperatures in the state could rise by three degrees by mid-century, the report said. After that, the warming could be more drastic, producing dangerous summertime heat waves and more than 24 days a year with temperatures topping 100 degrees.
  • with more than 3,000 miles of winding coastline, Maryland "is poised in a very precarious position" as sea levels rise. The problem of rising seas is compounded by geological processes that are causing the land around the Chesapeake Bay to sink.
  • waters might rise three feet by 2100, which would flood 200 square miles of land. On the Eastern Shore, part of low-lying Dorchester County might be lost, including waterside towns and some of the East Coast's best migrating bird habitats.
  • "In terms of the waterfowl, it would have a catastrophic impact," said Court Stevenson, a professor at the environmental science center. "They couldn't exist," he said, if the area's marshes became open water.
  • The report found that increasing temperatures could also cause a shift in the plants and animals that dominate Maryland's forests and the Chesapeake. Maple, beech and birch trees could be supplanted by pines. And the iconic Baltimore Oriole could depart, replaced by southern birds.
  • To stave off the most disastrous effects of climate change, the panel recommended that Maryland begin reducing its greenhouse gas emissions. The pollutants, which come from cars, boats, planes and power plants, have been increasing steadily in the state over the past decade.
  • By 2012, the commission said, emissions should be cut by 10 percent, compared with their 2006 levels. State officials said they think they are on track toward this goal.
  • the commission's most ambitious goal: a 90 percent reduction in emissions by 2050.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Xcel to disclose global warming risks from coal

According to today's New York Times:

The New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo said Thursday that the power company, Xcel Energy, had agreed to disclose risks to investors from its stake in coal-burning power plants and any related liability from global warming, lawsuits and new regulations or laws.

Coal plants can significantly contribute to climate change, Mr. Cuomo said “and investors have the right to know all the associated risks.”

Mr. Cuomo has been investigating Xcel, the AES Corporation, Dominion Resources, Dynegy and the Peabody Energy Corporation. On Wednesday, he said that the Xcel agreement would set a precedent. A Cuomo spokesman Alex Detrick said that negotiations were under way with the other four companies.

The Xcel president Richard C. Kelly said the company already reports on plant emissions and now will provide more detail.

This is the first instance I have seen of a large power company disclosing climate change-related risks of its energy sources to investors. More on the history of this effort here and here. I have seen efforts on the part of financial institutions to determine risk in their portfolios from climate change. This suggests to me that the financial institutions are backing Cuomo; otherwise he might not have the power to force power companies to disclose. Here is a rundown of blog posts on the topics of investment risk from carbon-emitting power sources and the writing on the wall for fossil fuel-burning power plants:

Local Warming:

Others:

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

School is back in session

School is back in session and that means the students at It's Getting Hot in Here are back to writing about climate change. They're reporting from the Democratic National Convention, planning bike treks, and are readying themselves to protest the RNC convention in Minneapolis. It's another fresh day full of possibility for these folks. I remember being a student once.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Water for Maryland's Future: Climate Change

A Final Report released July 1 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, "Water for Maryland's Future: What We Must Do Today," states that climate change "has the potential to affect both water quantity and quality through changed patterns of precipitation, increased evaporation, sea level rise that causes salt-water intrusion, and warmer temperatures that cause increased demands for drinking water, irrigation, and power production." It quotes the Interim Report of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change (the final is waiting for release per a conversation that I had with Dr. Don Boesch):

Air temperatures will increase in Maryland more than the global average,
resulting in average winter temperature increasing by about 8 degrees F by the
end of the century. Average summer temperature would also increase by
about 7 degrees F and the number of days with temperatures greater than 90
degrees F is likely to quadruple, with 25 or more 100 degree F
days...Precipitation during the winter and spring is likely to increase 10-15
percent, coming mostly in heavy rainfall events, but the summers and falls are
likely to be drier as increased evaporation depletes soil moisture.
The sole recommendation relating to climate change is that "the State needs current and historic data, and it also needs to anticipate that the future may not resemble the past."

Obviously there is a lot more to be said about water and climate change in Maryland, but it's good to see the subject on the radar of Dr. Wolman's committee. A link to the Appendix for the report is here.



Biden on Energy and Climate Change: full platform

Just as I did for Obama and McCain, I have scoured interviews, voting records, and other information sources to provide Biden's positions on energy and global warming. His platform is consistent with the Democratic Party Platform on climate change. I have not found this much information compiled in any one place anywhere else. I'll keep adding to this post as I find more:

  • Biden calls energy America's top issue
  • Would subsidize renewables. His website (no longer available) stated that he would make "a substantial national commitment by dramatically increasing investment in energy and climate change research and technology so that the United States becomes the world leader in developing and exporting alternative energy."
  • Claims to be "most capable of getting this country back into an international climate regime, getting us back to the table the fastest and with the most prospect for success, because of my extensive engagement in foreign policy. "
  • He sees climate change as a national security issue, saying "I'm also in the best position to make it clear to the United States Congress that this is not merely an environmental issue, it is a security issue. I held hearings this year pointing out that if we do not do something of consequence about global warming, drastically and soon, we literally are going to find ourselves reconfiguring our entire military to deal with occasions for new wars, which are going to be about territory and arable land. You see what's happening in Darfur [Sudan] now -- that's part of the problem."
  • Believes the predictions of IPCC scientists regarding sea levels and believes sea levels could rise 3 feet.
  • Says "you have to begin here in the United States by capping emissions, increasing renewable fuels, establishing a national renewable portfolio standard [RPS], requiring better fuel economy for automobiles" but "opposed a 40 mpg standard in 2005 and 2003. In 2002, supported a 35 mpg standard." He "would announce an executive order that the federal government would not purchase one single automobile for its fleet that gets less than 40 miles to the gallon."
  • He "would cap emissions at 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 and set a national RPS of 20 percent." He "supported establishing a 10% renewable electricity standard in 2005. He opposed a 20% renewable electricity standard in 2002".
  • He "would not build a single solitary federal project without it being a green project. That would have the effect of getting states to do the same thing, and that would create a pot of somewhere between a third and a half a trillion dollars that would be a lure to every major business in America to go green. "
  • Would engage with China and India on global climate change "by engaging in significant joint ventures with them both on new technologies."
  • Would "oppose subsidizing technologies that would worsen global warming, even if they would reduce our reliance on foreign oil".
  • Understands the real value of ethanol has more to do with national security than with solving environmental problems and says that "ethanol is a good start. Because of the amount of [resources] that go into producing corn-based ethanol, it has only marginally less impact on the consumption of fossil fuels. But it has two real advantages: it begins to give us the margin of flexibility we need to deal with being held hostage to any one of the seven unstable countries that supply 35 percent of our oil -- Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, etc. No. 2, it's a transitional means by which you're going to be pouring billions of dollars into the fields of the Midwest, rather than the sands of Saudi Arabia or the pockets of Chavez." In 2007, introduced the "BioFuels Security Act, to increase the use of corn-based ethanol production in the U.S."
  • Believes in clean coal but his position is interesting when you dig further into it: "I don't think there's much of a role for clean coal in energy independence, but I do think there's a significant role for clean coal in the bigger picture of climate change. Clean-coal technology is not the route to go in the United States, because we have other, cleaner alternatives. But I would invest a considerable amount of money in research and development of clean-coal and carbon-sequestration technologies for export. China is building one new coal-fired plant per week. That's not going to change unless there's a fundamental change in technology, because they have about 300 years of dirty coal, and they're going to use it." Stops short of calling for a moratorium on new coal plants without the technology when he is asked, saying "I believe that all new coal-fired power plants should be built with carbon capture and sequestration capacity. "
  • Issued a statement that he would have voted for cloture on Lieberman-Warner, which means he supports cap-and-trade legislation for greenhouse gases. His website (no longer available) said he "'supports a ‘cap and trade’ approach to regulating emissions and investment in technologies that can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.'
  • On October 8, 2007, "sent a letter to President Bush urging him to support mandatory national caps [on greenhouse gases], and a post-2012 framework for binding commitments for all major emitting countries."
  • Has a lifetime score of 83% with the League of Conservation Voters. According to LCV, "in 2007 alone, Biden voted to strengthen CAFÉ standards and to repeal unjust subsidies to oil companies. In 1986, he introduced the first bill designed to limit global warming pollution. Biden has been a leader on global warming issues, chairing Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings on the national security implications of unchecked global warming. He teamed with Republican Senator Dick Lugar to co-author and pass a resolution calling on the Bush Administration to return to international negotiations to address climate change. He has sponsored and supported numerous bills throughout his career that would decrease America’s dependence on foreign oil and increase investment in new technologies and renewable fuels. Biden has sponsored a bill to increase fuel economy standards for all automobiles, voted yes on reducing oil usage by 40% by 2025, and rejected drilling in ANWR; measures that have strong environmental and economic benefits for America."


Thursday, August 21, 2008

I love clean energy and I vote

I took this from ClimateProgress. I'm not a big bumper sticker person (the only thing on my car is a South African flag from when I visited there and a now-fading sticker I got at a swap meet that says "Protected by the Bill of Rights") but I would put this on. Why on earth are the Republicans fighting against clean energy? This includes John McCain, who has decided that the answer to all of our energy problems is nuclear power. Really? Why wouldn't you prioritize clean energy sources that cost less and don't contribute to global insecurity? See the video below of John McCain. Seriously, the people he relies on for advice are scary power brokers with no souls.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Follow the coal money in Congress

It always happens. As soon as I announce that I am going to slow posting for a while, I post more often. I don't get it.


Environmental Defense's Climate 411 blog alerted me to this cool site: Follow the Coal Money. The site not only tells you who is getting coal money, it maps connections between Members of Congress, Companies, and size of contributions. In Maryland, Steny Hoyer (D) received over 125K from coal companies in 2007-2008. He ranked third for coal contributions in all of the House.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Reduced posts til September

This is one of my chatty, rambling posts. It's my blog and I can do that if I want to.

I am going on a post slow-down until September because I will be having houseguests for a few weeks and various other commitments for the rest of the month. Check in because I will still be posting but don't count on me to post every day...I'll be back to report on the conventions of course. In the meantime, here's some hot topics I have been meaning to share:

I was glued to the TV the other day because the Saddleback debate promised to discuss climate change. Instead, we got such knuckle whiteners as, "Does evil exist?" Boo.

Check out this great piece in the New York Times and switch to box wine:

More than 90 percent of American wine production occurs on the West Coast, but because the majority of consumers live east of the Mississippi, a large part of carbon-dioxide emissions associated with wine comes from simply trucking it from the vineyard to tables on the East Coast. A standard wine bottle holds 750 milliliters of wine and generates about 5.2 pounds of carbon-dioxide emissions when it travels from a vineyard in California to a store in New York. A 3-liter box generates about half the emissions per 750 milliliters. Switching to wine in a box for the 97 percent of wines that are made to be consumed within a year would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about two million tons, or the equivalent of retiring 400,000 cars.
Read Hill Heat to learn more about The Gang of Ten energy proposal in Congress. Of course it stinks, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

Friday, August 15, 2008

What's the real story on energy in the US?

I, too, am tired of hearing the ping pong ball rhetoric about energy, since it's all packaged in an oversimplified way that's designed to make the lowest common denominator grunt in agreement. And when I hear things like how drilling won't reduce gas prices for over ten years and then only by a few pennies, or how drilling for oil is going to solve all of our energy woes, my common sense-o-meter pings to "wha?" If you listen to Democrats, the Republicans are lying about the potential for oil just so they can take advantage of the public's discontent about prices to promote a special interest that funds them. If you listen to the Republicans, the Democrats are incompetent dreamers who would sacrifice the economy for the environment. How do you know who to listen to? Here's my top ten:

  1. Who's paying the bills? Republicans and Democrats both get money from Big Energy, but Republicans get a lot more. Especially from Oil and Gas.
  2. Who's got a natural interest? Well, the current President is an oil man.
  3. What should the future look like? If the future should be smoggy and full of greenhouse gases, then we should pour public dollars into oil. You tell me.
  4. What's at stake and who's the competition? If the Republicans get to drill, it's a huge windfall for oil companies. If the Democrats win, they will benefit the renewables industry and Universities, which are significantly less powerful. [Mobil once tried to get the Chancellor of my University fired for refusing to allow drilling offshore. This is a very high-stakes game.]
  5. What are the benefits and costs to the public? The benefits according to the Energy Information Administration under Bush's Department of Energy estimate that drilling now will only save the public a few pennies per gallon after over 10 years. So this number is correct. The costs are that we give our national land to oil companies to exploit and focus attention away from the renewable fuels that would stop global warming. I used to live in Santa Barbara and I can also tell you that offshore oil rigs are smelly and they leak oil.
  6. How does this fit into a longer term political argument? The urge to drill is a convenient reversal of policies that many have worked years to put in place to protect places like coasts and national refuges. So it is not a new argument and the sides are well-established. It is merely a new opportunity.
  7. What are the risks? The risks from oil drilling are high because of environmental destruction from spills, global warming, and reliance on a fuel largely controlled by foreign interests. The risks of not drilling are not high.
  8. What is the alternative? The alternative is that we would rely more and more heavily on renewable fuels, which would hurt the oil and gas industry.
  9. Where are the logical fallacies? The argument for drilling is based on an emotional argument that is not based in facts. The attacks against Democrats are ad hominem (tire gauges?). Support for the drilling argument relies on ad populum arguments, communal reinforcement, and non causa pro causa (causation on gas prices).
  10. Who has more integrity? You could argue that neither side does. But the Republicans have gone down a very low road where they preach a simple message over and over that they know is untrue, and then leave others to defend against it. The problem with this tactic is that it has zero integrity, is completely disingenuous, and is extremely effective.

See this article in Grist.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

New ACEEE energy efficiency resource for states

From ACEEE:

Today, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) unveiled a new Web resource for state policymakers and energy efficiency advocates. This site is the initial phase of ACEEE's new State Energy Efficiency Policy, an ongoing project under the umbrella of ACEEE's State Energy Efficiency Policy Activities. The site serves as an easy-to-use online database of energy efficiency policies in the states, searchable by state or by policy. The database covers:

  • appliance standards
  • building codes
  • clean distributed generation policies
  • tax incentives
  • vehicle policies
  • a host of utility-related energy efficiency information

The site currently covers information for most of the leading states. Ultimately the site will cover policies for all states and will be expanded to also cover state climate policies and smart growth initiatives.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Global warming the next big investment megatrend

SolveClimate reports that global warming is slated to become the next global megatrend for investors. The link between climate change and money is a subject I like to cover, because people act with their wallets. What's interesting to me is that despite leadership at the national level, the financial markets are taking climate change to heart:

While U.S. policymakers are running in place on climate change, global investors are moving quickly to make money from its far-reaching risks and opportunities. One Wall Street firm is calling climate change the "next global mega-trend," after the opening of the Iron Curtain and the Internet revolution. Despite losses from the subprime debacle, European and US investment firms are ramping up their global warming research, trading desks, investments strategies and capital...

Deutsche and HSBC are just two of the many mainstream EU firms that have ramped up their climate-related investments and begun offering carbon-sensitive investment products for large and small customers alike. "In a little more two years, we estimate retail customers all over the world have pumped $66 billion into the more than 200 newly launched mutual funds and exchange traded funds investing in companies that help to mitigate or adapt to climate change," wrote Kevin Parker, head of Deutsche Asset Management, in a Financial Times commentary in March.

And interest continues to grow -- just this week, HSBC announced a another new Global Climate Change Fund.

But U.S. investment firms are catching on to the European trend quickly. We're now seeing a steady stream of Wall Street reports analyzing the business implication of climate change -- nearly 100 research reports in the last year alone. Virtually all have the same message: climate change will have far-reaching financial implications, creating both enormous risks and opportunities. Potential winners and losers from carbon-reducing regulations are an especially big focus. Others highlight water availability concerns in places such as China, Australia and the southwest U.S.

But reports are just one sign. U.S. firms are also jumping in with new investment vehicles geared to climate change solutions. Some funds are tapping energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other low-carbon technologies that stand to benefit as carbon regulations take hold worldwide. Among the funds that come to mind (and, please be aware, I am not endorsing any either of them):

Merrill Lynch launched an Energy Efficiency Index last summer made up of 40 global companies in the auto, building materials, capital goods and semiconductor sectors that are embracing improved energy efficiency. Merrill Lynch's analysts project that the global manufacturing industry could improve its energy efficiency by 18-26 percent overall (and at the same time reduce the sector's CO2 emissions by 19-32 percent). "Energy efficiency remains an area that is relatively unexplored," said Asari Efiong, a Merrill Lynch equity analyst.

KLD Research and Analytics launched a Global Climate 100 Index, a mix of 100 global companies selected for their involvement in renewable energy, future energy fuels, clean technology and energy efficiency. The index has posted a 57 percent return (17 percent annualized) since its launch three years ago.


Thursday, August 7, 2008

McCain, Obama energy plans: not just tire gauges

If you watch cable news, you might think that Obama's energy plan is tire inflation and McCain's is offshore oil drilling. Nothing could be further from the truth. As much as the cable pundits complain about the misrepresentations and unidimensional portrayals the candidates make of each other, Mike Barnicle, guest hosting for Hardball last night, hit the nail on the head: it's the cable news format that's to blame. What are the real energy platforms for Obama and McCain? First of all, I have been compiling energy platforms from both candidates for months that include their written platforms, speeches, and more. That link is here. Other than McCain's sudden "come to Jesus" moment about offshore oil drilling, his position on energy is the same as what I have in the link. Obama has added some new programs.

Climate Progress reports on the updates to Obama's plan:

  • Increase Fuel Economy Standards: Obama will increase fuel economy standards 4 percent per each year while protecting the financial future of domestic automakers.
  • Invest in Developing Advanced Vehicles and Put 1 Million Plugin Electric Vehicles on the Road by 2015: As a U.S. senator, Barack Obama has led efforts to jumpstart federal investment in advanced vehicles, including combined plug‐in hybrid/flexible fuel vehicles, which can get over 150 miles per gallon of gas.
  • Partner with Domestic Automakers: Obama will also provide $4 billion retooling tax credits and loan guarantees for domestic auto plants and parts manufacturers, so that the new fuel‐efficient cars can be built in the U.S. by American workers rather than overseas.
  • Mandate All New Vehicles are Flexible Fuel Vehicles
  • Develop the Next Generation of Sustainable Biofuels and Infrastructure
  • Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard: The standard requires fuels suppliers in 2010 to begin to reduce the carbon of their fuel by 5 percent within 5 years and 10 percent within 10 years.

The problem is not the plans, the problem is the media format. If cable news shows are so concerned about the energy plans of these candidates, perhaps they should discuss them instead of discussing things like McCain's Paris Hilton ad.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Sea level increase jumps to 3.4mm per year

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has a really stunning new website on global warming that includes eye-popping graphics and real-time stats on things like the current atmospheric concentration of CO2 (386 ppm) and the reduction of Arctic Sea Ice (38% since 1979). So far, sea level has increased 50 mm since 1992 and is currently increasing at a rate of 3.4mm every year. Within 100 years at the current rate, sea level would increase over one foot; however, the rate of sea level increase is predicted to go up. The global average temperature has increased 1.3 degrees F since 1895.

Why in hell are we debating about drilling for more oil?

Monday, August 4, 2008

Climate report predicts smaller, hotter Maryland

The Baltimore Sun has reviewed a copy of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change report that concludes global warming will eat at Maryland's shorelines and create "winters like Charleston, South Carolina" and "Summertime water temperatures...similar to those of the North Carolina sounds by 2050." The Commission is appointed by Governor Martin O'Malley. More findings from the report as quoted from the Sun:

  • An increase in the average annual temperature in Maryland of about 3 degrees Fahrenheit by midcentury is "likely unavoidable;" if greenhouse gas emissions go unchecked, summertime averages could soar by up to 9 degrees, with heat waves lasting practically all summer and 24 days with highs above 100 degrees.
  • Increased health risks, particularly for the elderly, the young and those with respiratory problems, due to both heat stress and air pollution aggravated by hot weather;
  • The maple, beech and birch trees in forested Western Maryland are likely to "fade away," the report says, while pine trees more common in southern climes come to dominate the woodlands.
  • As many as 34 bird species, including the signature Baltimore oriole, could be forced northward, while birds such as the cardinal and indigo bunting, seen more often to the south, become more common here.
  • When the climate models add the impact of melting Arctic ice, the projected rise in sea level jumps to three feet by the end of the century. If so, the panel concluded, "most tidal wetlands would be lost - about 200 square miles of land would be inundated," reverting to open water. Migration of wetlands to higher ground would not replace what is lost.
  • Smith Island and portions of Talbot, St. Mary's, Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties could be inundated or cut off.
  • An 18-inch rise in sea levels would drown 264 miles of roads, 226 miles of rail and 31 percent of Baltimore's port facilities, the panel noted. The panel urged that Maryland's long-range planning accommodate a 1-foot rise in sea level by midcentury and 2 feet by 2100. If emissions are not curbed, it would be "prudent" in long-term infrastructure planning to anticipate a 4-foot rise in sea levels a century from now.
  • As temperatures climb, cool-water northern species in the Chesapeake estuary, such as soft-shell clams, sturgeon and eelgrass, are likely to disappear, while warm-water species - such as Atlantic croaker - would benefit. Crabs might prosper from higher salinity and warmer temperatures.
  • With added runoff, that will expand "dead" zones, where nutrients in sediments lead to algae blooms, decay and reductions in dissolved oxygen.
  • On the plus side: Icing across the Chesapeake Bay - formerly a once-in-10-years event - may become as rare as once in 25 to 40 years, the committee said. That could aid oystermen and bay navigation.

The report is scientific- it's not a Chicken Little story. According to the Sun, "the committee drew from new and previous research on global and regional climate change, including the latest report, in 2007, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international scientific body set up by the United Nations."

Buy a new fridge and save money?

From my pal Omar:

http://www.recyclemyoldfridge.com/default1.aspx

This has actual numbers and a calculator (it had the power consumption #s for my fridge from 1998, I got my power cost from my BGE bill). In my case, for BGE's average rate, I apparently pay $136 a year to run the unit, versus $68 for a theoretical energy star model.$340 over 5 years is significant, but on the other hand, it's not enough to incentivize buying a new $2000 fridge by itself (but a good nudge regardless).

If Omar could save $340 over 5 years from replacing a 1998 refrigerator, then you'll definitely save more by replacing an older fridge.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

What ever happened to Bruce Ivins?

I was a high school student who sang in the 10:30 Sunday "Folk Mass" at St. Johns. Bruce played the keyboards. He took an interest in me because I was interested in science and had the beginnings of a civic consciousness. He congratulated me once for an editorial I had published in the Frederick News-Post defending the rights of women. He said he was proud of me for caring and told me it was important to express my thoughts in a public sphere. Bruce encouraged me in the sciences. He even took me to his anthrax lab one day for job shadowing. That day they had some kind of a breakthrough and everyone was very excited.

I remember Bruce being joyful then, and joyful when he played on the keyboards at mass.

Bruce was tall, thin, gangly and awkward. He seemed to have no concept of himself in physical space. His pants were always high waters, and he wore threadbare oxford shirts. I remember that he wrote letters to the editor all of the time, perhaps every week. He was extremely political, vociferous, yet believed in humanity.

When I heard yesterday that he was the main suspect in the anthrax murders, I really couldn't wrap my head around it. I thought about the scenario all day and just couldn't put it together in my brain. I said something to my dad about it today. He said, "when a friend does something truly terrible, it shatters you for a while."

I did a Google search on the anthrax scare and saw the envelopes and letters. I don't know how I missed seeing them before but I recognized Bruce's handwriting on them immediately. To this day, I remember his handwriting on letters to the editor he was writing and on his notes for church. It was the worst I had ever seen. He seemed to have no concept for spatial relationships. Some letters were squashed together. Some spaced too far apart. And he seemed to have no sense for where lines should be on paper. Forgive me if I am wrong but when I saw those envelopes I though he must have done it. The letters, I must say, I did not recognize the handwriting on. But the envelopes were unmistakable.

It also seems to make perfect sense that many of the anthrax letters were letters to the editor. But the Bruce I thought I knew would never harbor hatred against Muslims. I thought he could not have possibly written those letters. But then I went to the Frederick News-Post and looked at their collection of editorials from Bruce (which must be incomplete, by the way, because I remember there were many more) and saw that the last one in 2004 was horrible. Completely anti-Muslim, it defended the right of a Rabbi to refuse an audience with an Imam because the Imam was a "gentile." This was not the Bruce I knew in the early 90's.

I spent a lot of yesterday trying to integrate my thoughts but it wasn't possible. In the end I gave up. Bruce may have been a person with a mental disorder that got progressively worse. Or maybe it was there for years and I just did not know him well enough to see it. I may never know what happened to Bruce Ivins, if he was a lone wolf or co-conspirator. I may never know his motives: Was he in some paranoid anti-Muslim fantasy trying to aggravate the tensions with the Middle East? Was he trying to test his own vaccine in real life to assert the importance of his line of study, and get better funding? Was he playing megalomaniac savior to a plague he himself created in an over-scale version of Münchhausen by Proxy? I may never know how to integrate what I knew then about Bruce Ivins the mentor and what I think I know now about Bruce Ivins the killer.

What seems more important is how to deal with the future. A small number of firemen are pyromaniacs. A proportion of priests are pedophiles. And perhaps a small number of scientists who deal with infectious diseases will be tempted to unleash them on the public. If this is true, we need more safeguards on these diseases to prevent people from wreaking havoc. It's also clear that we need more reinforcement on lab safety, considering the anthrax leaks at the Fort Detrick lab. Most of all, we must halt the production of weaponized biological agents that is criminal according to international law and the Geneva convention.

For me, I am going to remember Bruce Ivins as I knew him: a concerned citizen and scientist who helped me to find my path as a communicator of scientific principles to the public at large, in an effort to make the world a better place.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Drilling vs Fuel Efficiency: Which lowers gas prices?

The Administration's answer to every problem we have in this country these days makes more money for the oil and gas industry and makes the problem worse. Coincidence? No. The Republicans in Congress are calling for increased drilling to solve America's energy crisis, but Bush's Energy Information Administration tells us that gas prices won't change in the near future. In the next few decades: pennies a gallon. If we are still using gas by then we are very stupid creatures; realistically, the country is going to update its outdated electricity grid; add new power sources that rely on wind, nuclear, and solar power; and make all vehicles electric. So what do we do about our fuel crisis now?

Or in other words, why aren't the Democrats responding to the argument for drilling with a much more convincing argument for vehicle efficiency? They are. Barack Obama's new ads call for fuel efficiency in vehicles; a no-brainer considering the demand (And a no-brainer from a political standpoint; McCain voted against increases in fuel efficiency). How does fuel efficiency compare to drilling in terms of the cost of operating vehicles? From CCAN:

If the average family has 2 cars, they probably are due to replace one of them in the next few years. And if that new car gets 50 miles to the gallon (attainable!), which is roughly double the current average MPG, they save 50% on fuel costs for that car. With an average fuel consumption of 678 gallons per year (according to the US Bureau of Labor and Stats), and with gas at $4 a gallon, over 5 years that bump in fuel efficiency will save that family about $6800. Hooray! Johnny gets a new saxophone! Little Margie can get braces! Sammy’s going to summer camp!

And the $6800 savings is over just 5 years, with one car. Bush’s drilling isn’t supposed to make a difference for 10-15 years or so. If we raise mileage standards next year families that buy new cars can start saving even sooner, bringing the savings during the drilling lag even higher. The sooner we convert the fleet to higher fuel efficiency vehicles the sooner we can start actually helping ease the burden of gas prices. Oh, btw, a rise in minimum fuel efficiency really helps slow global warming.